Even if the stock market turns technical, it needs to do so, unless some good economic news occurs.
An adjustment to a changing reality, or at least the prospects for it, is what's happening here; it's not a technical selloff.
I am not optimistic that the Fed's statement later today will be the turning point for the market. The answer, sadly, is no.
Using market speak, the Fed could raise rates by fifty, seventy-five, or one hundred basis points.
We may see an initial relief rally if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announces a 50 basis point hike.
The realization that such a move doesn't address the underlying issue will quickly come and we'll head lower again soon.
An increase of 10% would signal that the Fed isn't afraid to slam the brakes on the economy.
The central bank seems hellbent on pushing the economy into recession, which will result in renewed selling.
Both extreme positions losing, and the FOMC being a committee, 75 basis points seems most likely, but it will displease both sides.
In the opinion of those who believe that loose monetary policy and fiscal policy is the cause of it, the FOMC is staying behind the curve.
The S&P 500 closed yesterday 22.47% below its high from January 4, well into bear market territory.
Nevertheless, we finally saw a bounce of sorts after three straight days of the market closing above or near its low point.
Early buying like that indicates a possible rally the following morning, and futures so far point to the same.
It seems highly unlikely that today's technical rally will be accompanied by any positive news.
Investors may want to continue to hold off buying a while, since the Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place.